Goldman sees gold at $3,300 per ounce, will prices hit Rs 1 lakh per 10 gm in India?, ET BFSI
Gold prices have been on a powerful rally, with forecasts indicating a possible rise to $3,300 per ounce, pushed by central financial institution demand, geopolitical uncertainties, and macroeconomic elements.
Goldman Sachs has revised its year-end forecast to $3,100 per ounce, with a possible upside to $3,300 if coverage uncertainties persist. The financial institution additionally raised its central financial institution demand assumption from 41 to 50 metric tons per 30 days, citing fiscal dangers and inflation considerations. UBS has additionally lifted its worth goal to $2,900 per ounce, with projections of $3,200 later this yr as a result of liquidity constraints within the London market.
The yellow metallic has gained over Rs 8,600 per 10 gram, or roughly 11%, in simply over six weeks of 2025, following a 27% surge in 2024. On Tuesday, MCX gold futures hit a document excessive of Rs 86,360 earlier than settling at Rs 85,532.
Nevertheless, reaching Rs 1 lakh per 10 grams within the close to time period stays a difficult goal, regardless of the bullish outlook.
The Indian situation
Analysts anticipate additional good points however consider the Rs 1 lakh mark would require a further 16% rise, which can not materialise within the brief time period.
Geopolitical dangers, notably commerce tensions and tariff threats, have strengthened gold’s safe-haven attraction. Market sentiment has been influenced by considerations over potential U.S. tariffs, Federal Reserve price cuts, and fluctuating ETF flows. Regardless of these elements, some analysts argue that gold might face resistance past the Rs 87,000 degree within the close to time period, given the size of the current rally.
Whereas contemporary highs are possible, sustained worth progress is determined by elements just like the greenback’s motion, ETF flows, and coverage shifts. Some analysts recommend that whereas the trajectory stays optimistic, reaching the Rs 1 lakh milestone within the subsequent few months would require a confluence of robust catalysts, together with additional rupee depreciation and prolonged geopolitical dangers.
Gold loans by business banks surged by 68% within the first 9 months of FY25 as a result of rising gold costs. Non-bank lenders additionally noticed an increase in gold mortgage sanctions. The rise in gold costs has allowed lenders to supply larger mortgage quantities as a result of larger collateral worth, enhancing lender consolation regardless of regulatory scrutiny on gold mortgage portfolios.
Rupee depreciation stays a key issue for home gold costs, as a weaker foreign money raises the landed value of imports. Moreover, any shifts in Federal Reserve coverage or inflation developments might affect gold’s trajectory, both boosting demand or limiting additional upside.Whereas buyers stay bullish on gold as a hedge in opposition to financial uncertainty, specialists recommend a balanced method. Staggered investments and diversification throughout asset lessons might assist handle dangers in a unstable market. Though gold costs are anticipated to stay robust, reaching Rs 1 lakh per 10 grams within the coming months seems unlikely with out important further catalysts.
